US: Has the Wii Onslaught Against HD Market Share Stalled?

US - Has the Wii reached its zenith of potential against the combined forces of Microsoft's 360 and Sony's PS3? Or is this just another lull in the cycle similar to the summer of 2007?

Will the Wii eventually pass both of them combined in the US or has it run out of time? As always, we'll know just a little more next month. Leave your thoughts in the comments section if you think you know the answers to any of these profound questions.

Click to Enlarge:

Nintendo Propels Industry to Record Month

US - Following record sales of 2 million Wii consoles in November, Nintendo sales led the way to a new industry-wide record in December: $5 billion in revenue, the largest single month in video game history.

According to NPD, December sales were up 9 percent year-over-year, and sales for 2008 were up 19 percent.

Nintendo’s handheld, the DS, sold 3.04 million units, almost as many as the Wii and Xbox 360 combined (2.15 million and 1.44 million, respectively). Regarding software, the Wii’s console bundle, Wii Play and the Wii remote, sold 1.46 million units in December alone.

December 2008 Sales

1. Wii Play (Nintendo, Wii) - 1.46 million

2. Call of Duty: World at War (Treyarch/Activision, Xbox 360) - 1.33 million

3. Wii Fit (Nintendo, Wii) - 999,000

4. Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo, Wii) - 979,000

5. Guitar Hero: World Tour (Neversoft/Activision, Wii) - 850,000

6. Gears of War 2 (Epic Games/Microsoft, Xbox 360) - 745,000

7. Left 4 Dead (Valve/EA, Xbox 360) - 629,000

8. Mario Kart DS (Nintendo, NDS) - 540,000

9. Call of Duty: World at War (Treyarch/Activision, PS3) - 533,000

10. Animal Crossing: City Folk (Nintendo, Wii) - 497,000

2008 Full Year Sales

1. Wii Play (Nintendo, Wii) - 5.28 million

2. Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo, Wii) - 5.00 million

3. Wii Fit (Nintendo, Wii) - 4.53 million

4. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo, Wii) - 4.17 million

5. Grand Theft Auto IV (Rockstar/Take-Two, Xbox 360) - 3.29 million

6. Call of Duty: World at War (Treyarch/Activision, Xbox 360) - 2.75 million

7. Gears of War 2 (Epic Games/Microsoft, Xbox 360) - 2.31 million

8. Grand Theft Auto IV (Rockstar/Take-Two, PS3) - 1.89 million

9. Madden NFL 09 (EA Tiburon/EA, Xbox 360) - 1.87 million

10. Mario Kart DS (Nintendo, NDS) - 1.65 million

(Charts from gamasutra.com)

Wii Cuts Deeply into HD Lead; Will 360 and PS3 Lose Grip on 3rd Party Exclusives?

US - Nintendo continued its console dominance with a shocking sales total of 2.04 million systems sold in November. At the same time, the Wii made major gains against the combined force of HD systems 360 and PS3.

After a full year on sale in November 2007, it appeared the HD systems would fend off the sensational sales of the Wii with landmark sales of their own.

As both the 360 and the PS3 shared an extremely common library outside of several marquis exclusives, one could observe the strategy of 3rd parties favoring the higher-powered systems with multi-platform hardcore titles while pushing sub-standard shovelware onto the Wii audience.

And you could see why, too. The audience for the HD systems is clearly an older set than what many presume the Mario Kart audience is, and most 3rd parties are still marketing primarily to the older group.

Beyond that, the combined total of the 360 and PS3 in the US outpaced the Wii by almost five and half million as late as March of this year (60% market share). With the difference in audience, HD system's sales lead, and more viable options for after-the-purchase revenue streams (DLC), 3rd parties really haven't had a choice.

This month does not erase everything, but it certainly will raise the eyebrows of 3rd parties that haven't yet taken the Wii audience seriously. In the past eight months the Wii has lowered the HD lead by two-and-a-quarter million units, a million of that in the last month alone. How 3rd parties respond to that, or if they do at all, remains to be seen.

Questions for consumption down below.

(click to enlarge)

Questions for Consumption
1. Will Wii LTD ever pass the combined total of the HD systems in the US? When? Does it matter?

2. Will Japanese 3rd party exclusives like Monster Hunter 3 and Dragon Quest X significantly alter the race in the United States?

3. Wii Western Publishers see the significant Japanese exclusives and return volley with their own?

4. Will the certain addition of jRPG-enthusiasts from MH3 and DQX mean even more jRPGs for the Wii?

5. Considering the current Western 3rd party struggles on the Wii as well as the acknowledged difference in audience, is the Wii a viable option for 3rd parties to publish traditional harder-core games?

Gears of War 2 Passes 3 Million

Kris Graft of EDGE is reporting that Gears of War 2 has passed three million in worldwide sales.

Launching only four weeks ago, the sequel to the 5-million-selling megahit reached the three-million mark six weeks quicker than the original.

Epic Games VP Mark Rein said in an e-mail, "Microsoft [the game's publisher] confirmed to me this afternoon that Gears of War 2 sell-through surpassed 3 million units as of last week."

This is certainly good news to GoW fans, hardcore gamers, and investors alike; when a game like GoW and its sequel can sell eight million combined it shows that the market will still support quality games in the male 18-35 demographic.

Source

360 Gains In Japan a Mirage

Media Create Sales: 11/17 - 11/24 (Consoles)

Japan - In the same week that the Wii has crossed 7 million units sold, the 360 (long since written off in Japan by sales enthusiasts, and correctly, I might add) is once again playing as a potential spoiler against Sony's PS3.

One look at the Weekly Console Sales Chart (line, 2nd chart down) will show the gains 360 has made at PS3's expense. A closer look at market share charts is more revealing; the Weekly Console Market Share (line, 4th chart down) shows a once sub-5% weekly take has climbed above 20% nine of the last eleven weeks.

For a larger perspective, please observe the Total Console Market Share Chart (line, 6th down) and the Year on Year Console YTD Chart (line, last chart in this post) and one will observe that the 360 has really only gained back the ground it lost over the past year and only now hovers where it was in December 2007 (7.51%).

More importantly, one will notice that the 360 has basically sold one-for-one with itself from 2007 with a slight gain. While a 60k gain from the previous year isn't anything to sneeze at for a console that regularly posted 3.5k weeks this very year, it's really peanuts compared to Wii's 550k negative difference and PS3's 135k negative difference, especially considering they outsold the 360 by 500k and 2 million units respectively.

Analysis
So what are we really seeing? First, we're seeing 360's concurrent RPG releases make an impact on weekly sales at the same time the Wii and the PS3 are seeing year-on-year slowdowns.

Does this mean the 360 will suddenly take control of the weekly charts and take a commanding lead any time soon from the PS3? Doubtful. A close look at YOY charts across the board shows that the 360, outside of big releases in August and September, is only slightly elevated from the previous year's effort.

The true question at hand is what we're seeing from the PS3. The Wii is mirroring its YOY chart at a slight reduction (-10k this week), and the 360 is at a slight increase from 2007 (+8k), but last year at this time the PS3 was selling 40-50 thousand units during this period. That creates a dropoff from 2007 of twenty to thirty thousand units.

Is the PS3 suffering more from the economy than the Wii or the 360? Could it only be price? Does it matter and does any of that justify stagnant sales during a heightened-sales season?*

As always, we'll know just a little more next week.

* they don't celebrate Christmas, goofball.

October 2008 NPD Results - LBP Outsold by Mario Kart

NPD results are as follows. Stay right here for the latest in NPD Charts and graphs. That PS3 number looks BAD.

Hardware
Hardware Unit Sales
Oct-08
PlayStation 2 136K
PlayStation 3 190K
PSP 193K
Xbox 360 371K
Wii 803K
Nintendo DS 491K



Platform Charts
(click to enlarge for all charts)



Overall Charts


Top 10 Software
Publisher Release Date Rank # Units
360 FABLE II MICROSOFT (CORP) Oct-08 1 790K
WII FIT W/ BALANCE BOARD NINTENDO OF AMERICA May-08 2 487K
360 FALLOUT 3 BETHESDA SOFTWORKS Oct-08 3 375K
WII MARIO KART W/ WHEEL NINTENDO OF AMERICA Apr-08 4 290K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA Feb-07 5 282K
360 SAINTS ROW 2 THQ (CORP) Oct-08 6 270K
PS3 SOCOM: U.S. NAVY SEALS CONFRONTATION SONY (CORP) Oct-08 7 231K
PS3 LITTLE BIG PLANET SONY (CORP) Oct-08 8 215K
360 NBA 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE (CORP) Oct-08 9 202K
360 DEAD SPACE ELECTRONIC ARTS Oct-08 10 193K


Industry Sales
Dollar Sales Oct-07 Oct-08 CHG YTD Oct 07 YTD Oct 08 CHG
Video Games $1.12B $1.31B 18% $10.50B $13.13B 25%
Video Games Hardware $470.47M $494.74M 5% $4.13B $4.72B 14%
Video Games Software $514.60M $696.79M 35% $4.98B $6.76B 36%
Video Game Accessories $130.81M $120.19 -8% $1.40B $1.65B 18%

Microsoft Overall Revenues Improve, 360 & PC Revenue Down $331M

Overall, the company's profits edged up to $4.3 billion for the quarter, but EDD, which also includes Zune, Games for Windows, and Mac application software, decreased 6 percent to $1.81 billion. Its profits edged up 7 percent to $178 million.

Microsoft's SEC filing noted that the division's revenue decreased primarily due to decreased Xbox platform and PC game revenue, partially offset by increases across other EDD product revenue.

It revealed that Xbox 360 platform and PC game revenue decreased $331 million or 22 percent, primarily as a result of the $330 million of incremental revenue from the launch of Halo 3 in the three months leading up to September 30th, 2007, as well as decreased revenue on Xbox 360 consoles as a result of price reductions during the prior 12 months.

Read the entire article HERE.

Microsoft: Xbox 360 will outsell PS3 this Christmas (gamesindustry.biz/kotaku)

"We expect to continue our price advantage over the PlayStation 3 for a long time," said Greenberg.

"And we feel confident that we'll outsell the PS3 this holiday season in North America and in Europe. We'll do it on a global scale."

With all three SKUs reduced in price, it's perhaps not surprising that the cheapest console – which sells for under USD 199 in the US and GBP 129 in the UK – is performing very well for Microsoft.

"We've seen lifts across all consoles, but the Arcade is doing exceptionally well," added Greenberg.

Read the entire article HERE.

August 2008 NPD Results

Hardware Unit Sales
PlayStation 3 185.4K
PlayStation Portable 253.0K
Playstation 2 144.1K
Xbox 360 195.2K
Wii 453.0K
Nintendo DS 518.3K


Top 10 SKU's August 2008
(includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)
Publisher Release Date Rank # Units

360 MADDEN NFL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS Aug-08 1 1.0mm
PS3 MADDEN NFL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS Aug-08 2 643K
PS2 MADDEN NFL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS Aug-08 3 424.5K
WII WII FIT NINTENDO OF AMERICA May-08 4 394.9K
WII MARIO KART NINTENDO OF AMERICA Apr-08 5 328.7K
WII WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA Feb-07 6 200.2K
360 SOUL CALIBUR IV NAMCO BANDAI GAMES OF AMERICA Jul-08 7 174K
360 TOO HUMAN MICROSOFT Aug-08 8 168.2K
WII MADDEN NFL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS Aug-08 9 115.8K
NDS GUITAR HERO: ON TOUR ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Jun-08 10 111.2K

In-depth NPD Analysis by Edge's Matt Matthews

Matt Matthew's monthly NPD article (and insider access from the NPD themselves) once again produces one of the best US Game Sales analysis around. Please read the entire article HERE. Great read.

Here are the condensed major points:
1. With the DS and Wii, Nintendo is winning every battle: total hardware, total software, and total revenue.

2. MGS4, for as "big" of a game as it is (and important to the hardcore audience), won't even make the top 10 for software sales this year.

3. Nintendo's 3rd party sales only account for 56% of its software sales, while the 360 and PS3 are at 82% and 83% respectively. [Editors Note: I would point out that this is a dangerous statistic to use without first referencing hardware LTDs]

4. The Audience from PS2 has not collectively migrated to a singular console.

NPD Charts from EDGE:

NPD Reactions: MS, Sony, Nintendo

Read the entire article HERE.

Selected Comments:

Nintendo

• The brief statement mentioned the hardware sales figures for DS and Wii, noting a 49 per cent market share for Wii in terms of living-room consoles, and a 73 per cent market share for the DS for handhelds.

Sony

• A rather longer statement began by trumpeting the "momentum" for the PS3, with 1.8 million units sold in the US in 2008 - a 99 per cent growth year-on-year.
• Additionally PS3 software showed a 206 per cent growth level for the year to-date, and SCEA promised over 140 Blu-ray titles by the end of the fiscal year.
• More than 42.5 million PS2s have now been sold in North America across the console's lifetime.
• The PlayStation brand has now yielded more than USD 3.3 billion in the year to-date; July hardware sales hit USD 609 million in July - 22 per cent growth; July software sale hit USD 184 million - 28 per cent growth.

Microsoft

• Since launch consumers have spent over USD 10.4 billion on the Xbox 360 in the US, giving the platform a 49 per cent market share.
• Xbox 360 titles accounted for USD 129 million - 34 per cent share - in software sales for July.
• Third party revenue generated by the Xbox 360 platform was USD 121 million - 42 per cent of the market.
• Xbox 360 now has an attach rate of 7.9, which Microsoft stated as the highest attach rate in history for any console at this point in its life cycle.
• The statement closed with a look ahead to the rest of the year, including the Netflix deal in the US and a games library of over 1000 titles, including Lips, You're in the Movies, and Gears of War 2.
  

NPD July 2008 Results

HW
DS 608k
Wii 555k
Playstation 3 225k
PSP 222k
Xbox 360 205k
Playstation 2 155k

Top 10 SW
360 NCAA FOOTBALL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS JULY 2008 397.6K
WII FIT W/ BALANCE BOARD NINTENDO OF AMERICA MAY 2008 369.6K
NDS GUITAR HERO: ON TOUR ACTIVISION JUNE 2008 309.7K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA FEB 2007 284K
PS3 NCAA FOOTBALL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS JULY 2008 242.5K
360 SOUL CALIBUR IV NAMCO BANDAI GAMES OF AMERICA JULY 2008 218.9K
WII MARIO KART W/ WHEEL NINTENDO OF AMERICA APRIL 2008 174.5K
WII ROCK BAND SPECIAL ED BUNDLE MTV GAMES/ELECTRONIC ARTS JUNE 2008 165.8K
PS3 SOUL CALIBUR IV NAMCO BANDAI GAMES OF AMERICA JULY 2008 155.8K
360 SID MEIER'S CIVILIZATION REVOLUTION TAKE 2 INT. CORP. JULY 2008 147.6K

(stay tuned for charts/updates)

Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 Hardware Shipments through June 2008

It seems wrong to just go over the Nintendo hardware shipment totals, so let's look at the other guys. Unfortunately there's not as much interesting to show for a number of reasons: Sony and Microsoft no longer give out separate shipment numbers per region. Neither PS3 nor X360 are setting records in a high or low way. Since Sony switched to their modern method of shipping they've only given the quarterly/yearly numbers rather than lifetime totals, which means for the moment we've lost track of where PS2 and PSP are at.

I'm trying something different for this post. My images can be made at arbitrary sizes, but at a size for column width here things don't look their greatest. Last time I made them bigger but gave the image tags a smaller size, which looked halfway decent in Firefox 3. However, in browsers that use simpler methods of image resizing (IE7, Firefox 2) those images look pretty awful. So as a compromise, I'll display the images created with a width of 400, but if you click on them they'll be created at a larger size. So the images shown here are not just smaller thumbnails of what the larger version will look like.

X360: 20.3 million. PS3: 14.37 million. Wii: 29.62 million. X360 and PS3 have on the whole performed similarly since PS3's launch, but PS3 does seem to be catching up: this is the third straight quarter PS3 has outshipped X360. In the last three quarters, PS3 has outshipped X360 by 1.88 million.


For the first year of each system from launch, they shipped very similar numbers. However, PS3 has continued to ship decently large numbers, while at this point in its life X360 shipments were pretty slow since they'd overshipped in the previous holiday season.

As I said earlier, they're not breaking records in a good or bad way. How do they compare to other recent secondary/tertiary consoles, though?


Pretty decently, actually. Both are above last generation's GCN/Xbox, and appear to be around N64 shipment territory. N64 and Sega Genesis are historically the top secondary systems, doing in the low 30 millions. That two systems at once are doing this well is pretty impressive. If they don't drop off as quickly as N64 did in its later days, they could become the new secondary/tertiary champs. Since both systems still have a lot of room for price drops and no party seems in a rush to launch the next generation, this seems quite possible.

However, they'd both have to do a hell of a lot better than N64 to come to the sort of totals currently predicted by users of the simExchange: 62 million (X360) and 73.5 million (PS3).