Japan: Wii Slides to Lowest Console Market Share in Two Years

The last time the Wii had a lower lifetime console market share was April 2007.

Console Sales Fall Sharply in Japan Amid Recession

Japan - Even the red-hot Nintendo isn't immune to the belt-tightening fear of recession. Just weeks after what was is the biggest part of the year, console sales are down across the board to a shocking low.

Compared to this week last year, the Wii is selling barely 42% of its previous total (2008: 26.7k, 2007: 63.5k). However, Sony's PS3 and Microsoft's XBOX 360 are both up several thousand units comparatively, but the Wii's 68% market share means this is a significant contraction indeed.

In a striking reality check, Nintendo (the company with untold billions of cash on hand) saw it's stock drop 12% after it cut its earnings forecast.

Stay right here for the latest and we take a look at how handheld sales are effected.

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PS3 and 360 Nibbling At Console Market Share

Japan - At the beginning of last summer, the Wii almost crossed its 70% console market share barrier with 69.99% on 06/02/08. While the Wii was reaching for historic highs, the 360 had reached its lowest point* and the PS3 was quickly decelerating in one of its lower moments (23.55%).

* The 360 bottomed out at 6.39% two weeks later. Shortly thereafter, I went on record predicting that 5% or less was inevitable.

Since then, the Wii has lost nearly 2% console market share, not an insignificant number this deep into the generation.* The 360 hasn't been that low again, climbing up to a much more respectable 7.68% and the PS3 looks like it will be locking in around 24% for the generation and currently sits at 24.18%.

*2% of all console hardware represents 225 thousand units at this point.

Questions for consumption:
1. Are we seeing the plateau of Wii success in Japan? Is 70% the zenith it will never quite reach?

2. What does this mean? Can Microsoft hold its head up a little higher with 7.68% than it could at 6.something %?

3. In the same breath, should Sony be ashamed that it only has 24% market share after dominating so completely for the past ten years? Or, has the market truly split into casuals vs. hardcore, and, as the fanboys put it, "it's doing really well for being so expensive!"?

Media Create Sales: 01/05 - 01/11

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Wii Sold 700k Less in 2008 than 2007; PS3 Steadies, 360 Improves

Japan - Another year gone, but the results are the same. The Wii couldn't muster quite enough to match it's 2007 run of 3.7 million systems sold and fell short by seven hundred thousand, a 20% drop.

The PS3, though, almost matched its 2007 results of 1.18 million systems sold and only fell short one hundred and forty thousand systems short, a slightly-less disappointing 12% drop.

Thumbing its nose at the competition (perhaps ironically from way down in last place), the 360 actually gained year-over-year and sold one hundred thousand systems more in 2008 than in 2007, a 40% increase.

Despite the relative changes for each, market share remains a mirror image of 2007's line, with Wii's iron grip around 68%, PS3 resting comfortably at 24%, and the 360 7.64% defying those that would say it is little more than statistical noise.


Questions for consumption:
Look closely at the above linked chart (also included down below) and notice that the market share for each really hasn't changed much at all since November 2007.

• Does that mean that each system's generation-end results will be the same?
• Can Nintendo do anything to ruin their lead?
• Can Sony do anything to make a sizable dent in the next year? Is it too late?
• Should Microsoft be proud of maintaining almost 8% of the market? Should they even bother next generation, or do you think they're laying in-roads for the future?

Media Create Sales: 12/29 - 01/04 (Consoles)

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Japan: Holiday Console Sales Down 34% From 2007

Japan - This is typically the one time per year that console manufacturers can look forward to significantly increased hardware sales, but 2008's holiday season in Japan has been a disappointment (so far).

Combined, all three have seen a 33.76% drop in sales in similar time periods* from 2008 compared to 2007 holiday seasons.

Sony has seen the biggest drop, selling 200k PS3s in the same time it sold 340k last year, a 40.68% drop. Nintendo has also seen a significant drop in sales, selling 360k Wii systems compared to 576k in 2007, 37.76% less than 2007 totals.

The lone bright spot isn't much of a consolation prize, though. Microsoft has sold 91k units in 2008 compared to 68k in 2007, both numbers considerably lower than its competitors. Still, small victories that show growth in a difficult territory have to be an encouraging sign to Microsoft.

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*Notes:
1. Comparison of "2007 vs 2008 Holiday-Heightened Sales" uses Media Create sales data 10/15/07 -12/10/07 and is a comparison of like weeks to Media Create sales data 10/13/08-12/08/08.

2. By "holiday heightened sales" Chart Get! does not suggest that Japanese people celebrate Christmas, although a growing number are participating. Rather, this time period generally reflects a sharp and extended upswing in sales for all systems and software.

Wii Falls Behind 2007 Totals By Five Hundred Eighty Thousand Units

Japan - As 2008 comes to a close, Nintendo is looking to answer where exactly the Wii is at in terms of its future and current momentum. The Wii has currently sold more than half a million fewer consoles in 2008 than it did in 2007 (see: chart), and even more concerning, the holiday push of Animal Crossing: City Folk and Wii Music seems to have a dampened effect compared to Wii Fit in the same period.

Check this out:

Wii       2007      2008      DIFFERENCE
11/10    36,230    26,787       9,443
11/17    54,362    35,298      19,064
11/24    74,764    49,848      24,916
12/01   115,057      ???         ???

Notes:
1. 2007 Wii has outsold 2008 Wii for five weeks in a row, and 34 weeks this year out of 48 possible weeks.
2. 2008 Wii has sold 577,323 fewer consoles in 48 weeks than were sold in 2007.
3. For comparison purposes: PS3 is down 139,727 units and the 360 is actually up by 31,748 so far.


Media Create Sales: 11/24 - 11/30 (Consoles)

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360 Gains In Japan a Mirage

Media Create Sales: 11/17 - 11/24 (Consoles)

Japan - In the same week that the Wii has crossed 7 million units sold, the 360 (long since written off in Japan by sales enthusiasts, and correctly, I might add) is once again playing as a potential spoiler against Sony's PS3.

One look at the Weekly Console Sales Chart (line, 2nd chart down) will show the gains 360 has made at PS3's expense. A closer look at market share charts is more revealing; the Weekly Console Market Share (line, 4th chart down) shows a once sub-5% weekly take has climbed above 20% nine of the last eleven weeks.

For a larger perspective, please observe the Total Console Market Share Chart (line, 6th down) and the Year on Year Console YTD Chart (line, last chart in this post) and one will observe that the 360 has really only gained back the ground it lost over the past year and only now hovers where it was in December 2007 (7.51%).

More importantly, one will notice that the 360 has basically sold one-for-one with itself from 2007 with a slight gain. While a 60k gain from the previous year isn't anything to sneeze at for a console that regularly posted 3.5k weeks this very year, it's really peanuts compared to Wii's 550k negative difference and PS3's 135k negative difference, especially considering they outsold the 360 by 500k and 2 million units respectively.

Analysis
So what are we really seeing? First, we're seeing 360's concurrent RPG releases make an impact on weekly sales at the same time the Wii and the PS3 are seeing year-on-year slowdowns.

Does this mean the 360 will suddenly take control of the weekly charts and take a commanding lead any time soon from the PS3? Doubtful. A close look at YOY charts across the board shows that the 360, outside of big releases in August and September, is only slightly elevated from the previous year's effort.

The true question at hand is what we're seeing from the PS3. The Wii is mirroring its YOY chart at a slight reduction (-10k this week), and the 360 is at a slight increase from 2007 (+8k), but last year at this time the PS3 was selling 40-50 thousand units during this period. That creates a dropoff from 2007 of twenty to thirty thousand units.

Is the PS3 suffering more from the economy than the Wii or the 360? Could it only be price? Does it matter and does any of that justify stagnant sales during a heightened-sales season?*

As always, we'll know just a little more next week.

* they don't celebrate Christmas, goofball.