US: Has the Wii Onslaught Against HD Market Share Stalled?


US - Has the Wii reached its zenith of potential against the combined forces of Microsoft's 360 and Sony's PS3? Or is this just another lull in the cycle similar to the summer of 2007?

Will the Wii eventually pass both of them combined in the US or has it run out of time? As always, we'll know just a little more next month. Leave your thoughts in the comments section if you think you know the answers to any of these profound questions.

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JJS said...

April was a down month for everyone. In terms of market share, though, it wasn't much worse for Wii than a lot of months over the last year. There are some months Wii nearly doubled the combined HD consoles, but they're the exception. Looking at the X360/PS3/Wii monthly share splits from last April to this April, here are Wii's percentages:

2008-04: 65.6
2008-05: 63.1
2008-06: 51.6
2008-07: 56.4
2008-08: 54.3
2008-09: 54.2
2008-10: 58.9
2008-11: 62.7
2008-12: 49.8
2009-01: 57.0
2008-02: 53.0
2008-03: 52.3
2008-04: 53.0

It's natural that the overall market share growth has slowed, though. As the number approaches what the monthly average is there's less room for movement, whereas in the system's first few months it could grab multiple percent at a time because it was starting from nothing.

And yeah, if every month this year were to be half-sized for everyone compared to the year before, that would slow growth of the overall numbers too.

Crawford said...

This is the way I see it.
After supply overtook demand in February, the Wii's weekly sales have just kept falling.

Wii weekly sales
February: 188.25K per week
March : 120.2K per week(Down 36.14% from from Feb)
April: 85K per week (Down 29.28% from March)

And while, all 3 consoles fell year on year in April, the Wii fell much faster than the other 3 consoles:
April 2009 2008
360 : 175K 188K -7%
PS3 : 127K 187K -32%
Wii : 340K 714K -52%

I am expecting Wii weekly sales to fall again to 65,000 for May.
So while the Wii still outsold the HD consoles combined in April this year, in April last year, the Wii outsold the HD consoles combined by a much bigger 339,000, while in this year's April NPD, the Wii only outsold the HD consoles by 38,000.
Yes, all the 3 consoles fell in sales in April, but the Wii fell much harder than the HD consoles, ending up with the gap between the HD's and the Wii being much closer than it was last year in April.

Given the rapid fall in Wii weekly sales since February, I think it's inevitable that the HD consoles start outselling the Wii by at most August this year, if not earlier.
I would expect the Wii to gain another 100-200,000 at most on the HD consoles in the next few months, after which the HD consoles combined are gonna start outselling the Wii on a consistent basis.
If the PS3 gets it's price cut soon(more or less confirmed by Sony during their earnings call), the HD consoles will outsell the Wii at an even faster rate.
Bottom line: the Wii will never overtake the HD consoles in America.

JB said...

I'd like to see an update to this article.

JJS said...

So get cracking. :P

Taking a quick look at what's happened with a couple more months, it seems the HD twins have gained 60K on the Wii. Wii has scooted up a tiny bit in the percents, though; X360 35.2%, PS3 18.0%, Wii 46.8%.

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