Japan: Holiday Console Sales Down 34% From 2007

Japan - This is typically the one time per year that console manufacturers can look forward to significantly increased hardware sales, but 2008's holiday season in Japan has been a disappointment (so far).

Combined, all three have seen a 33.76% drop in sales in similar time periods* from 2008 compared to 2007 holiday seasons.

Sony has seen the biggest drop, selling 200k PS3s in the same time it sold 340k last year, a 40.68% drop. Nintendo has also seen a significant drop in sales, selling 360k Wii systems compared to 576k in 2007, 37.76% less than 2007 totals.

The lone bright spot isn't much of a consolation prize, though. Microsoft has sold 91k units in 2008 compared to 68k in 2007, both numbers considerably lower than its competitors. Still, small victories that show growth in a difficult territory have to be an encouraging sign to Microsoft.

(click to enlarge)

*Notes:
1. Comparison of "2007 vs 2008 Holiday-Heightened Sales" uses Media Create sales data 10/15/07 -12/10/07 and is a comparison of like weeks to Media Create sales data 10/13/08-12/08/08.

2. By "holiday heightened sales" Chart Get! does not suggest that Japanese people celebrate Christmas, although a growing number are participating. Rather, this time period generally reflects a sharp and extended upswing in sales for all systems and software.

Media Create Projections: (11/10 - 11/16) - 360 Continues Climb

Welcome back! Outside of 360's uncharacteristic jump and PS3's larger-than-expected fall, we had excellent results from last week's expectations. In other projection-type news, I've been attempting to develop an equation which will help with projections. More about that later. For now, results and expectations:

Last Week's Results:

SYSTEM		PROJECTED		ACTUAL
DS		120,000		113,278
PSP		42,000		43,726
WII		28,000		24,726
360		7,000		12,759
PS3		25,000		18,354
TOTAL		222,000		212,843

Results, Analysis, & Expectations:


DS: Nailed this week's results again. Having shipment data and assuming 100% sell-through is certainly helpful. Both DS & PSP should stay steady this week as the end of year spike approaches. Next Week: 105k.

PSP: Within 1.7k units is pretty damn close. We are observing the normalization of the curve before the end of year spike. This week should fall right in line with the previous two. Next week: 45k.

Wii: Remarkably consistent. Last week's projection was closer than the previous, but could be better. This week brings the line down a bit to adjust for the normalized curve (at 24k) with a slight gain as the end of the year spike (and Animal Crossing w/Wii Speak) approaches. Next Week: 28k.


PS3: The week before I underestimated the strength of the PS3 Bundles, the next week I overestimate their staying power. The trend of the spike combined with the trends of the end of the year show a reasonably stable numbers heading into the end of the year. Next week: 16k.

360: TLR bump a bit early? Perhaps. Incidently, the 360 results from last week were up 219% Year-on-Year. Regardless of how poorly the 360 really has done this generation in Japan, it is clearly gaining some momentum with the Japanese hardcore audience. The Last Remant looks to continue that trend. For now, I look to see last week's gain normalize into a more significant weekly number. Next week: 15k.


Click HERE for Last Week's Post!

October 2008 NPD Analysis (Gamasutra)

Read the entire article @ Gamasutra

Do Exclusive Titles Hurt the Competition? EEDAR Say "Yes."

Interesting article up today over at Gamasutra which quotes EEDAR expert Jessee Divinich. Read it HERE.

Divinich looked at several exclusive high-profile/AAA titles and compared hardware results across all systems in months that they launched. It is unclear what exactly made a title "high profile" or "AAA." Whether it was total development and marketing budget, total sales in a previous iteration, or just standard gamer lexicon is never stated.

Analysis
While the conclusion seems obvious, AAA titles that cannot be purhased on a particular system hurt that system, the data used for making that conclusion seems to overlook numerous other factors, or at least those factors aren't stated or implicitly understood.

First and already noted is the issue with the definition of "AAA exclusive." I realize that, like porn, you know it when you see it, but it still needs to be defined to make proper conclusions.

Second is the issue with the same-month comparison of hardware sales in the month of the exclusive title. By the included chart (source: Gamasutra), we cannot tell without research exactly which month the game in question was released, whether the systems on which it was not released were in a current monthly decline, and whether or not the sales bump from the exclusive lasted past the month in view.

This is an interesting idea and one that clearly has merit on its face alone. Nothing is more important to hardcore gamers than games they can only play on one system; exclusive titles with huge followings can have a measurable impact on buying decisions. Every gamer in his or her heart would readily conclude that exclusive titles absolutely hurt other system's sales. This just isn't proof of that.

NPD: Behind The Numbers, September 2008 (Gamasutra)

All charts produced by Gamasutra:








Read the entire article HERE.

Analysts: US Game Sales will rebound in October

"While overall sales growth was negative, implying that the consumer is beginning to feel the effects of the economic downturn, it was above most expectations, with solid hardware sales implying continued software sales strength through the holidays," says Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter.

"We expect October software sales to be solidly higher than last year’s, and believe that any perceptions of consumer weakness caused by the September data will be reversed next month."

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian agrees that industry sales will pick up again in October, thanks to more Wii supplies, Xbox 360 price cuts and a strong lineup of releases for the month. The analyst pegs EA, Activision and Ubisoft as the likely leaders, expecting EA's Rock Band 2 and Left 4 Dead; Activision Blizzard's Wrath of the Lich King and Guitar Hero; and Ubi's Prince of Persia and Far Cry 2 to be among the month's winners.

Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz says that as far as his firm's concerned, September NPD actually exceeded bleak expectations, and the results should "allay investor concerns."

Does this look down to you?

Read the entire article HERE.

Microsoft targets 1 million Xbox 360 sales in Japan

Microsoft Corp’s Japanese unit aims to achieve its domestic sales target of one million units for the Xbox 360 video game console as quickly as possible, a senior official said on Friday. Microsoft Co, the U.S. software giant’s unit, hopes to boost sales by leveraging new games and boosting sales promotion efforts, Takashi Sensui, executive officer and chief of the home and entertainment division of the Tokyo-based firm, said.

Read the whole article at JapanToday.

Analysis & Opinion
Can they do it? At roughly seven hundred thousand units sold in Japan, they need three hundred to reach that magical mark of one million units. If we start with the base assumption that the 360 will be around for exactly three more years before being replaced by its successor (the 720?), then we can extrapolate that it needs to sell one hundred thousand per year to do so.

Breaking it down further, that's 3 years at 52 weeks for a total of 156 weeks. Dividing 300,000 by 156 leaves us with 1,923 units per week for three full years to be able to reach one million.

Based on our previous assumption, this should be extremely easy, especially since at 360's lowest point ever it was still averaging 1k+. With a few bumps during big holiday periods and a few big title releases, this should absolutely be possible. What could prevent this? Clearly, the 360 being replaced early in Japan would be the biggest cause for concern.

What does it mean? What does a million units in the land of Nintendo's Wii and DS soaring into the stratosphere and Sony's PS2 having already broke every record for console sales in history? Not much, honestly. But what Microsoft has successfully done is leverage the audience of hardcore gamers unsatisfied by Nintendo's and Sony's offerings into a palpable base that can impact the market. Most importantly, they successfully dictated to Sony the schedule at which "next gen" would begin. One million units is a good launch pad from which to try that again.

PL

In-depth NPD Analysis by Edge's Matt Matthews: August 2008

Matt Matthew's monthly NPD article (and insider access from the NPD themselves) once again produces one of the best US Game Sales analysis around. Please read the entire article HERE. Great read.

Here are the condensed major points:
1. Madden Sales: Hardcore Market (males 18-32) are without question fully invested in the HD consoles and Madden sales prove that. Or perhaps the 'casual-friendly' changes to the game were completely rejected by any audience that would have been interested?

2. Entry price is key; 360 doing well, PS3 needs to cut their price (but won't), and Nintendo has "the most robust console and handheld sales the industry has ever seen," instead they should actually raise the price to slow shortages! (said in jest).

3. If a picture is worth one thousand words, then Dennis Dyak's antics were only worth 168,000 units sold for Too human. or 168 pictures, assuming words were units sold. or something. I'm not sure this analogy works. I'll get back to you on this one.

4. This is the first month where sales-growth in the game industry may be reflecting larger concerns about the US economy.

New Charts from EDGE:

In-depth NPD Analysis by Edge's Matt Matthews

Matt Matthew's monthly NPD article (and insider access from the NPD themselves) once again produces one of the best US Game Sales analysis around. Please read the entire article HERE. Great read.

Here are the condensed major points:
1. With the DS and Wii, Nintendo is winning every battle: total hardware, total software, and total revenue.

2. MGS4, for as "big" of a game as it is (and important to the hardcore audience), won't even make the top 10 for software sales this year.

3. Nintendo's 3rd party sales only account for 56% of its software sales, while the 360 and PS3 are at 82% and 83% respectively. [Editors Note: I would point out that this is a dangerous statistic to use without first referencing hardware LTDs]

4. The Audience from PS2 has not collectively migrated to a singular console.

NPD Charts from EDGE: