Welcome back! Last week had some wild results, with a nice estimate for the DS and some some relatively inaccurate estimates for the PSP and PS3. Am I undervaluing the Sony brand?
Last Week's Results:
| SYSTEM | PROJECTED | ACTUAL | |||
| DS | 193,000 | 188,294 | |||
| PSP | 38,000 | 50,358 | |||
| WII | 35,000 | 23,123 | |||
| 360 | 7,800 | 6,119 | |||
| PS3 | 18,000 | 39,587 | |||
| TOTAL | 291,800 | 307,481 | |||
Results, Analysis & Expectations:
(click to enlarge all charts)
DS: Nailed last week's projection which was based on shipment data and expected sell-through. Nintendo is reportedly shipping 100k per week right now. I expect the remaining shipment from last week plus the majority of this week's shipment to sell. 120k.
PSP: I suppose that's what I get for over-correcting from the week before; missed by 12k. This week, I look for continued success for the PSP while the line curves back down into a normal weekly sales pattern just before the end-of-year climb. 42k.
Wii: See a pattern yet? I keep looking for that bounce coming from the big October title (last year, Wii Fit, this year, Wii Music), but it just hasn't happened. The end-of-year bounce should start happening across all platforms starting now, but my past 4 projections for the Wii have been a bit generous. This line will raise slightly. 28k
360: What a dream; consistency makes estimations easy. I overestimated last week and I'll likely underestimate this week. Trends suggest that the 360 should go down but this end of year bounce will occur eventually and the result is a conservative estimate. 7k.
PS3: Oops. I was admittedly misinformed on PS3 shipments, but them's the breaks. Past trends for the PS3 shows bounces receding by somewhere between 25% and 75% (Gundabump, MGS4-bump, etc). This time the bump is a bit lower at 40k and the resulting dive should occur around 60% of the previous week. 25k
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