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An average of 171.4k a month drop on the HD-wii chart if measured from the peak. I know you're down on the idea of the chart reaching zero or less (that'd take two years and a month if it continued the same trend forever, but we both know it doesn't work that way), but do you think that in the short term the Wii will continue to outsell PS3+360? Last year there was a September boost (was that largely from Halo 3? I think the price cut was in August, no?) that reversed a long-term drop in the chart, but it didn't happen this time, despite the price cut.
So a running question is, since Nintendo's supply chain is healthier this time around, will it deliver enough units to avoid the skyscraping that went on during Nov/Dev/Jan/Feb? I don't know if there's precedent for this situation in previous generations, especially since the monthly Wii sales have been often record-breaking (and, when they're not, they seem to get the number two all-time placing only because the DS happens to be higher that same month).
To look at a Nintendo-friendly possibility that we can guess will be better than reality, let's say for the next several months Wii does 50% better than the year before (it's what they've claimed for supply increase, and what Wii is up for nine months of 2008 vs nine months of 2007), while PS3 and X360 sales are completely flat.
In this scenario, from October-February Wii will overall gain 57K on the HD consoles.
The NPD Market Share pie chart has Wii at 42.78% marketshare. But the line graph has it at 47.78%.
Overall, nice charts!
anon--good eye. that's clearly mislabled. if you see the placement of the wii square on the chart it is between 40 and 45%. I'll fix that soon.
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