Wii Closing In On 7 Million Sold; PS3 May Not Hit 5 Million (ever)

11/22/08

Media Create Sales: 11/10 - 11/16 (Consoles)

Japan - As Nintendo's two-year anniversary of the Wii launch approaches, lifetime sales for the system are nearing a PS2-like 7 million units early in its life cycle. Weekly market share gains strength (51%) and lifetime market share continues to hover around the 70% mark that it has been flirting with since April of 2007.

In stark contrast, the PS3 has only just crossed the 2.4 million mark in two years. If the trend continues, the PS3 may barely pass 5 million lifetime in the traditional console life cycle of 5 years. Total lifetime market share has held steady between 22% and 27% since January of 2007.

Notably, Microsoft's 360 has clearly taken a major bite out of Sony's Japanese strategy, taking more than 7% market share that would presumably go to the PS3.

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11/22/08

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sony isn't the business of selling consoles, they sell licences...hence the heavily subsidised unit at launch and through their first years....

The attachment rate of software his much much higher than Wii and everyone that i know that has a wii has it in a dark corner gathering dust...

PL said...

1. Sony is in the business of selling licenses, a business that is easier to pursue when the console in question has tremendous market share and more than one audience.

2. Attach rate has always been a faulty statistic; it is a stat that is championed by fans of poorly-selling consoles. Simply put, the smaller the denominator, the bigger the attach rate. Or for a better example, check out the attach rate of the PS2.

Anonymous said...

How do you know they'll never, and I mean NEVER reach five million? The only thing holding the PS3 back is the price. Once they drop the price, it's game over for the competition.

David Macphail said...

I completely agree, the PS3 is headed for a price drop in Europe during March 2009 (With other territories soon to follow, or on the same day). Once that happens the 360 and the Wii will be history (Well, the 360 already is, but the Wii will be history).

Do people honestly think that anybody in their right mind would buy a console like the Xbox 360 when they can get a decent piece of hardware that actually HAS games for roughly the same price??? I don't think so.

It's like Sony said - they decide when the next - gen starts. Once the PS3 becomes more price - competitive you'd have to be braindead not to think it's gonna fly off the shelves like a life - saving cure. ESPECIALLY with the huge amount of exclusive titles coming out during 2009.

One other thing to point out that those charts show is that year - on - year sales show the PS3 improving over it's 2007 performance, while the Wii has done DRASTICALLY worse (So far), this only leaves one conclusion - the Wii has ALREADY peaked in sales......and is now left with nothing but a slow decline into the black abyss while the PS3 is steadily gaining ground with each passing week. It's like the race between the hare and the tortoise - except the tortoise has the best hardware and the hare has a load of crappy games.

JJS said...

Anonymous 1, but every time we see tie ratio figures things go in the order X360 > Wii > PS3?

Anonymous 2, PS3 is now cheaper than PS2 was at its launch in Japan, but no price drop has yet had a lasting effect. Of course we can only speculate what the future holds, but so far it's been performing similarly to the GameCube, which ended up just over 4 million. Of course that system got cheaper with time, too, but that still didn't help it sell more than a million from 2004-2006.

David, PS2 peaked in Japan in 2002. Since then it's had a slow decline into the black abyss while selling an additional 10 million consoles.

Anonymous said...

David,

You are a Sony fanboy if there ever was one. XBOX 360 has dominated, and will continue to dominate, the PS3 in all markets but Japan. Go to any store (i.e. Best Buy or Circuit City or GameStop) and check both sections. The PS3 section is usually in disrepair and is half to 1/3 the size of the XBOX 360 section. This is a fact. Undisputable. Wonder why? Because there are more games (and high quality games) for the 360.

There are only 14 games for the PS3 that have sold 1 million or more. While there are 43 games for the 360 that have sold 1 million or more. Domination, plain and simple.

Anonymous said...

Charts, and graphs are nice and all, but does anyone really expect that Sony won't sell over 5 million in Japan? I'm so tired of this Wii bullshit in Japan. I swear it's like the japanese love that shit like crack. The novelty for some reason hasn't worn off, but once Sony lowers the price, things will be a different story. Also games like FF13 will push craploads of PS3's in Japan. Whoever wrote this article needs to seriously think before they speak out loud.

viciouskillersquirrel said...

Less than five million will happen if the current trends hold. Weekly sales, being a discrete-time series, are prone to a certain amount of noise, but the overall trend is clear.

The Wii's popularity isn't about novelty. It's due to a market shift. Being surprised by the success of motion control over graphical power is like being surprised that MP3 players' convenience are beating out CDs' sound quality.

Much like with the DS's monstrous success, the Wii has shown that polygon-pushing power is no longer a priority for the majority of the video game market. It might be important to you, but you're hardly representative of the overall market, are you?

As for FFXIII's effect on PS3 hardware sales, I fully expect FFXIII to push PS3 sales to heights it has never reached, possibly drying up the supply for a few weeks as FF fans buy up the console in droves.

However, much like the MGS and Ace Combat fanbases, I fully expect Japanese FF fans to beat the game as quickly as possible then resell both the game and the console, negating any long-term effect they may have had on install base.

I think the best FFXIII can hope to achieve for the PS3 is what SSBM achieved for the Gamecube - and that's assuming the game has legs.

David Macphail said...

To the idiot not smart enough to realise that you can leave your name above the comment you post - if i were a Sony fanboy then why would i own a Nintendo 64, Gamecube, Wii, GBC, GBA AND a DS??? Idiot!

The 360 is beating the PS3 in America, but in PAL territories constantly finds itself outpaced and outmatched (Due to the fact is has unstable hardware and no games). YOU are a Microsoft fanboy if there ever was one.

Like i said, once the PS3 and 360 are roughly the same price do you HONESTLY reckon anyone would choose a games console with crappy storage media (13 DVD's are gonna be needed for Final Fantasy XIII), a 100% failure rate, an expensive and shoddy online service (Disconnection issues are NOT cool, as Carlito would say) and barely an exclusive title in sight over the PS3? If you do i feel sorry for you.

To the person who compared sales of the Wii to the PS2 - you're forgetting that what gave the PS2 legs was the AMAZING amount of top - quality games for the console (Best first and third - party support EVER). The Wii does not have that and probably (Most likely) never will, a good price point isn't enough if the huge games aren't there.

Once the PS3 becomes an attractive price - point though.............there you go!

PL said...

One thing worth noting, and many of the readers should acknowledge, are two assumptions of this article (one of them stated):

1. "...based on a traditional console life cycle of 5 years." Many of the complaints against this rationale is that Sony's consoles have both lasted 8 years or so. Ok, if we're playing semantics we could say that, but we could also acknowledge that the PS2 came out before the PS1's 8 years and the PS3 obviously came out in less than 8 years as well. A little fact about those two consoles: they were market leaders with an incredible amount of 3rd party support and hardware sales to justify their lifecycle. At this point nobody using logic could justify Sony extending the PS3 life past 5 years.

2. The other is that the previous assumption is based on the other assumption that Sony will kill the PS3 and/or do a complete re-release/relaunch with a major redesign and price cut. A PS3.5 if you will. I think it will happen sooner than people expect.

At which point all bets are off.

David Macphail said...

I really don't see Sony NEEDING to redesign/relaunch the PS3, either in the near future or possibly even EVER.

The latest price drops on standalone Blu - ray players point to the fact that the Blu - Ray drive component is now much cheaper to manufacture. The Blu - Ray drive is the most expensive thing inside the PS3, if Sony can cut manufacturing costs on that substantially they can lower the price of the console to a more economy - friendly price point (Which is set to happen next March).

That coupled with the fact that Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, God Of War 3, Killzone 2, Jak & Daxter: The Lost Frontier and Gran Turismo 5 are sure - fire system sellers and with the market supposedly headed towards a "Blu - Ray explosion" with the release of titles like The Dark Knight, Lord Of The Rings and The Matrix........Sony have a lot to look forward to next year.

And that's going up against what? Forza Motorsport 3.......Splinter Cell: Conviction (Which may be going multiplatform).........Alan Wake (Which may NEVER arrive).....Dead Or Alive 5 (Also rumoured to be multiplatform)??? LOL!!!

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