Media Create Projections: (11/10 - 11/16) - 360 Continues Climb

11/18/08

Welcome back! Outside of 360's uncharacteristic jump and PS3's larger-than-expected fall, we had excellent results from last week's expectations. In other projection-type news, I've been attempting to develop an equation which will help with projections. More about that later. For now, results and expectations:

Last Week's Results:


SYSTEM
PROJECTED ACTUAL
DS
120,000
113,278
PSP
42,000
43,726
WII
28,000
24,726
360
7,000
12,759
PS3
25,000
18,354
TOTAL
222,000
212,843

Results, Analysis, & Expectations:



DS: Nailed this week's results again. Having shipment data and assuming 100% sell-through is certainly helpful. Both DS & PSP should stay steady this week as the end of year spike approaches. Next Week: 105k.

PSP: Within 1.7k units is pretty damn close. We are observing the normalization of the curve before the end of year spike. This week should fall right in line with the previous two. Next week: 45k.

Wii: Remarkably consistent. Last week's projection was closer than the previous, but could be better. This week brings the line down a bit to adjust for the normalized curve (at 24k) with a slight gain as the end of the year spike (and Animal Crossing w/Wii Speak) approaches. Next Week: 28k.


PS3: The week before I underestimated the strength of the PS3 Bundles, the next week I overestimate their staying power. The trend of the spike combined with the trends of the end of the year show a reasonably stable numbers heading into the end of the year. Next week: 16k.

360: TLR bump a bit early? Perhaps. Incidently, the 360 results from last week were up 219% Year-on-Year. Regardless of how poorly the 360 really has done this generation in Japan, it is clearly gaining some momentum with the Japanese hardcore audience. The Last Remant looks to continue that trend. For now, I look to see last week's gain normalize into a more significant weekly number. Next week: 15k.


Click HERE for Last Week's Post!

11/18/08

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