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I've been noticing that the market share for the DS and the market share for the Wii among "current generation" (that is, excluding the PS2) consoles are nearly identical. It's [69.242 : 30.758] for [PSP : DS], and it's [69.227 : 23.622 : 7.150] for [Wii : PS3 : 360] (slightly different number than that from your above chart, but using the LTDs you posted on gaf).
I was wondering if you'd taken note of this and whether you think that it's a random streams-happen-to-be-crossing thing or if the two systems are heading towards some sort of meaningful asymptote. I'm not trying to blanket the Japanese market with a blind "69.23% of gamers are casual or Nintendo fans" labeling, but I am curious to see if this has any significance.
Great question.
I would suggest that it's less of a demographic description as it is simply a matter of what the market will bear.
I hypothesize that once you get above 68%, it becomes extremely difficult to move much past that in any sort of competitive environment.
Clearly, you've found an interesting relationship, but as the market is still growing I wouldn't be able to make a case and say that 70% of the market is a Nintendo fan, but rather that 70% of the market is as much as the leader could (or should) ever be able to get.
PL
I was going to point out that the PS2 had a ~82% share, but then I realized I forgot to add in the Dreamcast. I don't have the total sales number for it. garaph's Famistu info starts in 1999 November, its MC data even later. If the 2.5 million alleged at pcvsconsole.com is accurate, that'd bring it down to 74.78%, much closer to our current representation. PS2 also had that nearly uncontested time span before the other systems came out, though. The situation always varies and evolves, of course.
Right, PS2's early launch relative to GCN and Xbox allowed it to rack up a pretty high percentage. Really the DS/PSP and Wii/PS3 launching in the same months is quite abnormal. The only other such close launch that comes to mind (admittedly I don't have dates for all consoles memorized) is Saturn and PS1, which launched 1-2 weeks apart.
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