Media Create Projections: (10/20-10/26)

10/27/08

Last Week's Results:

SYSTEM PROJECTED    ACTUAL  DIFFERENCE  ABS DIF  ADJ % ACC
DS 30,500 29,839 661 661 97.78%
PSP 155,500 159,816 -4,316 4,316 97.30%
WII 34,000 26,024 7,976 7,976 69.35%
360 6,300 7,856 -1,556 1,556 80.19%
PS3 6,500 4,725 1,775 1,775 62.43%
TOTAL 232,800 228,260 4,540 16,284
AVG 3,257 81.41%


Analysis:
I nailed the DS and PSP projections, hitting 97% accuracy on each, and was within 1800 units on both the 360 and PS3 projections.

The Wii was down further than expected, but a closer look at the chart on the right shows that it really is falling in line with YOY expectations.

What I'm seeing on a week-to-week basis is that the Adjusted YOY method works. The same things are happening at the same time and this method works for establishing predictability when markets are in a set pattern. That Wii 2008 line vs. the Wii 2007 line is breathtaking.

As it is now, my method is not set in stone and does not have a set equation, but is based on YOY data, current trends, and upcoming releases. I am attempting to establish an equation that can reasonably predict sales results within a huge +/- 5% error. My current method (sans equation) allows a +/- 3.2k unit difference, but a more disappointing accuracy percentage.

Last Week:
DS: 29,839
PSP: 159,816
WII: 26,024
360: 7,856
PS2: 7,261
PS3: 4,725

Average, Last 4 Weeks:
DS: 40,496
PSP: 58,858
WII: 25,136
360: 8,795
PS2: 8,177
PS3: 6,492

Last Year This Week:
DS: 76,273
PSP: 59,792
WII: 27,502
360: 3,718
PS3: 18,785

Projections 10/20 - 10/26:
DS: 30,000
PSP: 85,000
WII: 29,000
360: 7,500
PS3: 5,000

Notes, Ideas, Justifications, Expectations:
DS staying steady while DSi hype builds, PSP loses almost 50% of hardware bump after its first week, Wii mirrors 2007 exactly, 360 consistent for past 3 weeks, all confidence in PS3 lost--won't move past 5k until something changes.

10/27/08

1 comment:

PL said...

Famitsu's early numbers:

DSL 26,004
PSP 66,837
PS3 4,107
PS2 7,467
360 6,858
Wii 25,459

While my projections are based on MediaCreate, it looks like I did fairly well again this week, except for a 20k overshot on the PSP.

Stay right here to see hardware results. They will be released Thursday night.

PL

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