NPD July 2008 Results: Charts

8/14/08







Analysis & Opinion:
[ ] If I was in the board room over at the 360 offices, I would be concerned. I would show my superiors the LTD chart but I'm afraid they'd look at the Market Share Line chart. Going 1-for-1 with the PS3 since Christmas simply isn't good enough, especially after the failure of HDDVD. I also wouldn't hang my hat on the hope that BRD never truly takes over.
  • The 360 has lost around 1% market share per month since August 2007 (-12.5%).
  • The PS3 has gained around 4% since last August 2007.
  • The Wii has gained around 9% since last August 2007.

[ ] The 5 million unit lead the 360 currently has over the PS3 looks secure for now, but only because the PS3 is only just meeting or barely beating the 360 since Christmas. If this continues after targeted prices drops and the announcement of FFXIII, I would have contingency plans in place.

[ ] If I was a 3rd party selling games in the US territory, I would look at that Next-Gen Lead chart for a long time. I see 4.4 million reasons with a known core audience to target, assuming that my artistic desires would lead me to make hardcore games.

[ ] If I was Nintendo, I would be doing everything in my power to point at that LTD chart that is pointing straight upwards and compare it to the PS2 LTD line (anybody got one handy?). I would point to the money they made on the PS2, and I would smile and then point out the numbers on Nintendo's core games and how they sold here in the States.

I would say something along the lines of "The Wii will sell more consoles than any machine in history, and it will combine the core gamer audience of the PS2 with the casual audience of the PC. You will make much money."

Chart Notes:

[ ] Specific numbers removed from certain charts to observe privacy rules.

[ ] Not sure why I left the PS2 out of the total pie chart. I've never tracked PS2 sales, but at 155k, it's almost hitting 360 numbers. (STILL).

[ ] I think my NPD charts leave a little to be desired honestly; but I also think that's a direct result of the lack of specific numbers being released (leaked) any more. It certainly limits what I could ever do with software barring the occasional press release. I will be reworking my NPD charts to more closely resemble my MC charts. Logos, legends in the pie charts, etc.

[ ] I'm definitely aware of the glaring lack of handheld charts in relation to the NPD. I'm currently trying to secure the numbers since their respective launches to do so properly.

[ ] I really want to beef up that "Next-Gen Lead Over Wii" chart. What does it need? I think I could actually change the type of chart, but I could also add some different logos or something. Suggestions welcome. Post in the comments for immediate feedback.

PL

8/14/08

5 comments:

GameplayWhore said...

I vaguely recall seeing equivalents of your "Next Gen Monthly Totals" with weekly averages on the y axis in previous GAF NPD threads. Were those yours? They're pretty useful, especially since those five-week month blips tend to skew the trendings.

(btw, big fan of your and jjs's and donny's, et al, charting work)

PL said...

Hey thanks a lot gpw. I'm not certain to which chart you are referring, though.

Post a link to it or something and either we can replicate it or make it better.

GameplayWhore said...

Don't know it offhand, if I see it, I'll pop in a link. But the basic gist is just the same as your graph but with the values divided by the number of weeks in each NPD month. So, for example, June's Wii datapoint would be at 133K and July's Wii datapoint would be at 139K, showing its increase per equal unit time. You get a lot of folks going "Console Z went way down in sales this month ... MEGATON!", when it may have remained the same or gone up in terms of sale per unit time.

There was brief mention of the weekly sales in the early part of this week's NPD thread, but I'm about to collapse. Maybe I'll play with some graphs in the morning. I feel a smidge inspired.

JJS said...

GameplayWhore, off the top of my head I think the monthly analysis at Next-Gen/Edge has usually had a bar graph showing the weekly sales rates. Someone (donny2112?) may be keeping one in line form as well, but I haven't gone through GAF's July NPD thread yet so my recall on that is a bit fuzzy.

PL said...

I see now; the benefit would show the effects of lengthened or shortened months.

I'll have to think of a way I can incorporate that into next month's charts. I might do a month-to-month comparison of the major systems and their changing "weekly average."

Good idea GPW. I'll see what I can do with it.

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