Poll III: Where Is NSMB2 Headed?

(click to enlarge)

Super Mario Bros. Release History:

NES:
Super Mario Bros. - 1985
Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1986
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 1988

Gameboy:
Super Mario Land - 1989
Super Mario Land 2 - 1992

SNES:
Super Mario Bros. 4 (SMW) - 1990

N64:
Super Mario 64 - 1996

GC:
Super Mario Sunshine - 2002

DS:
New Super Mario Bros. - 2006

Wii:
Super Mario Galaxy - 2007

Opinion/Analysis:
The above shows the proximity of main-line flagship Mario titles released per system and the years in which they were released. Notably, the last time a direct sequel for a flagship Mario game appeared on the same system as its predecessor was NINETEEN HUNDRED AND NINETY-TWO. That's 16 years, fellas.

Clearly, NSMB is the best selling Mario title since the original (please refer to the amazing chart produced and maintained by Stumpokapow), so those that would argue that NSMB2 is bound for the DS would have a convincing argument.

So what do you think? Will Nintendo follow the last decade and a half of precedent or will they take advantage of the enormous install base of the DS? Will they actually make a direct sequel, or will they continue with their history of reinventing Mario for their next machine?

Poll II: Most Likely to Happen?

Most Likely to Happen?

UPDATE: Looks like you guys overwhelmingly think the PS3 is the most likely to have a DS-style hardware revision.

Wii LX....34 votes (22%)
PS3 "Lite"...88 votes (59%)
360 eLite...26 votes (17%)

Original Article:
By "Lite," I mean a DS-like re imagining of the system. Think: a new standard shell, a new color, a new package, new marketing...all in the name of prolonging, reviving, or sparking a sales flurry and possibly salvaging (or hanging onto) a generation of gamers.

The DS Lite is clearly the most successful revision of a shell/marketing/packaging in history. It took a relatively mundane product, affectionately dubbed the DS Phat, and streamlined it so it was truly a mass-market product intended for all electronics users. Before it went on sale, it was running neck-and-neck with the PSP. When the Lite launched in March 2006, it became a worldwide phenomenon in comparison with the top 2 or 3 systems of all time.

Just in Japan:


In the same sense, the current gen of consoles might be able to capitalize on changing demographics to do the same thing mid-generation. Imagine, a Wii "LX," packaged with an HDD and released in piano black and WM+ built into the controllers. If the price stays the same, sales would explode.

Or how about a slimmed down version of the PS3 built in white and sold for $249? I'm thinking a PS3 Lite for $249 packaged with FFXIII might sell a few units here and there.

Each could provide an interesting redirection and could spark a change of momentum so distinct it could change the shape of hardware wars for years. The strategy involved would require a complete rethinking of target audiences, an intense commitment to making worthwhile and needed improvements, and the ability to anticipate what the consumer truly wants.

So, which is Most Likely to Happen?

Bi-Weekly Poll 1: Which Happens First?

Which Happens First?
Wii Hits 70 Million Worldwide....18 votes
PS4 is Announced...2 votes.

The results of the first poll are in, and apparently you guys think the Wii will be hitting 70 million world wide. Or you think the PS4 will never be announced. Or you think one will be happening before the other. Or something.

The Wii is beating the PS2's trendlines in every territory around the world [charts / citation needed]. Is it out of this world to suggest that the Wii could end up beating the PS2's LTD of 140 million units? Can it last that long? Is the combined competition from the PS360 too strong? Will one of the above release a new entry into the race and completely change the momentum, like a "PS3 Lite @ $249" or something?

Opinion:
In short, yes. Yes, it's completely possible for the Wii to match the PS2's worldwide LTD of 140+ million. Lots of things would have to fall into place, but it is possible. Based on every possible trending that we have, the Wii will continue to out pace the PS2 throughout its lifespan.

The real question is how long the Wii's lifespan is. I'm not sure it can last long enough for it to happen before competitors start launching new products, but admittedly, that's my gamer bias questioning its hardware capabilities, not a rational market researcher questioning market saturation.

Also at factor here is how long Nintendo will support a product. The last relevant examples of Nintendo winning a hardware race are the DS over the PSP (still going), and the SNES over the SEGA Genesis (ended prematurely by SEGA's horrendous 32x-lovin' strategy). Neither of which really apply.

The DS might be a good benchmark in that it had far lesser hardware compared to the PSP but completely destroyed it worldwide. The Wii does seem to be following that same trend of sales over hardware, so we might watch how Nintendo handles the DSL->DS2 transition for inspiration.

I think Sony's PS3 is the wildcard. If they pull an about face with the PS3 hardware (think DS Phat to DS Lite) and find a way to get that price down to mainstream prices ($249) and a single unconfusing SKU, the PS3 could easily change the generation's momentum it its favor.

I highly doubt that it would happen though. More likely, the PS3 will be marginally upgraded throughout its lifespan in some imaginary arms race with Microsoft and the price will remain the same, leaving the Wii to reach for 150 million on its own.

PL