NPD July 2008 Results: Charts

Analysis & Opinion:
[ ] If I was in the board room over at the 360 offices, I would be concerned. I would show my superiors the LTD chart but I'm afraid they'd look at the Market Share Line chart. Going 1-for-1 with the PS3 since Christmas simply isn't good enough, especially after the failure of HDDVD. I also wouldn't hang my hat on the hope that BRD never truly takes over.

• The 360 has lost around 1% market share per month since August 2007 (-12.5%).
• The PS3 has gained around 4% since last August 2007.
• The Wii has gained around 9% since last August 2007.

[ ] The 5 million unit lead the 360 currently has over the PS3 looks secure for now, but only because the PS3 is only just meeting or barely beating the 360 since Christmas. If this continues after targeted prices drops and the announcement of FFXIII, I would have contingency plans in place.

[ ] If I was a 3rd party selling games in the US territory, I would look at that Next-Gen Lead chart for a long time. I see 4.4 million reasons with a known core audience to target, assuming that my artistic desires would lead me to make hardcore games.

[ ] If I was Nintendo, I would be doing everything in my power to point at that LTD chart that is pointing straight upwards and compare it to the PS2 LTD line (anybody got one handy?). I would point to the money they made on the PS2, and I would smile and then point out the numbers on Nintendo's core games and how they sold here in the States.

I would say something along the lines of "The Wii will sell more consoles than any machine in history, and it will combine the core gamer audience of the PS2 with the casual audience of the PC. You will make much money."

Chart Notes:
[ ] Specific numbers removed from certain charts to observe privacy rules.

[ ] Not sure why I left the PS2 out of the total pie chart. I've never tracked PS2 sales, but at 155k, it's almost hitting 360 numbers. (STILL).

[ ] I think my NPD charts leave a little to be desired honestly; but I also think that's a direct result of the lack of specific numbers being released (leaked) any more. It certainly limits what I could ever do with software barring the occasional press release. I will be reworking my NPD charts to more closely resemble my MC charts. Logos, legends in the pie charts, etc.

[ ] I'm definitely aware of the glaring lack of handheld charts in relation to the NPD. I'm currently trying to secure the numbers since their respective launches to do so properly.

[ ] I really want to beef up that "Next-Gen Lead Over Wii" chart. What does it need? I think I could actually change the type of chart, but I could also add some different logos or something. Suggestions welcome. Post in the comments for immediate feedback.

PL

PS2 Shipments, Adjusted

Whenever shipment data comes up, it's the prudent thing to point out that comparing last-generation systems with current-generation systems is a strange thing due to the very different launch schedules. Every console this generation launched in a shorter time frame than any console last generation. So I had the idea to form a different sort of worldwide total by pretending each console launched in all regions in the same quarter, to create a more comparable situation to this generation. The downside to this is it downplays the production improvements made this generation. Sony didn't launch the PS2 in Europe 9 months after in Japan just for kicks, but because they couldn't produce enough. Creating a view like this erases that difference.

The other disadvantage is... really only PS2 has enough data to do this accurately; at least through early 2007, when they shipped to their different current shipment-reporting method. There's worldwide and regionally split PS2 shipment data for every quarter (and then some). GCN and Xbox only had half-year shipment reports for much of their lives, so I can't do the necessary quarterly shifts. PS3 shipments aren't reported regionally, so I can't do the shift at all. Wii and Xbox 360 actually did launch worldwide in a single quarter, so there's no adjusting to be made.

So for what it's worth, here's the no-adjustment-needed X360 and Wii aligned with the adjusted PS2, where NA and EU launches have been pushed up three quarters.

It's pretty remarkable how similar Wii and the adjusted PS2 are. But then, they've always seemed similar when broken down into single-region comparisons, so I guess that makes sense.

Media Create Sales: 7/21 - 7/27 (Console Charts)

Media Create Sales: 7/14 - 7/20 (Consoles)